Placed the orders this morning. (<3 Interactive Brokers and $1 commissions.)

AAPL 14% (Huge margins, huge revenue growth, tons of cash.)
GOOG 22% ("Less than free” looks likely to crush most competitors.)
GTU 23% (US policymakers will continue printing money = gold higher.)
FCX 20% (The developing world will continue developing.)
IBB 22% (All those smart scientists will eventually do something cool.)

I’m often accused of being ADD in my fantasy baseball league, so we’ll see how long I can leave this alone. Ideally I wouldn’t touch this for at least a year or two.

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Categories: investing

I’m posting this via iphone. I’ve always wanted to post more consistently and am hoping this might help. I always have my phone on me and this app seems decent so I’m giving it a go. I’m a little scared I will have some unfortunate Damn You Autocorrect moment thanks to the iPhone but no risk no reward right? Insert test of multitasking skills: just turned on the SiriusXM app and got the address for DYAC.

http://damnyouautocorrect.com/4077/10-most-popular-autocorrects-from-december-2010/.

Check that link out for a good laugh and be grateful you don’t have an iPhone so it can’t brutalize you like it did those poor saps. Ok, end of test – looks like this basically works. We’ll see if this enables me to post more frequently.

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Categories: innovation

I am not good at trading. I try to be honest with myself, admit that, and avoid trading. However, in our Jim Cramer/Fast Money era it seems like you are leaving money on the table if you don’t have at least a couple positions on at all times.

Here is a summary of my trades of the last 4 years or so.

Trade #1 (Winner) – Buy Gold via CEF with gold at $600 back in 2008ish? Sell at $1000+ and rebuy at $900. Just sold again at $1500+ last week. 2.5x

Trade #2 (Winner) – Close all positions with market at roughly 11,000 in fall 2008 when I see on C-SPAN that Congress isn’t going to pass first TARP bill. I look like a hero as market falls to 6,000ish. Avoid getting cut in half.

No Trade #2.5 (Loser) – I never rebuy. Buffett say its time to buy, I see 4,000 around the corner and take a pass. Market now at 12,000+ and all of a sudden Trade #2 doesn’t look so great. Miss an easy double.

Trade #3 (Loser) – Try to make money shorting commercial real estate over a long period of time using a short term structured ETF. Very bad idea, lose lots of money. I suck at trading. I’m reminded yet again to not even play if you aren’t going to put the work in. Lose 75% of position.

Trade #4 (Winner) – Buy SLV at $13.89. Sell last week at $45ish. 3x

Net – I’m basically completely flat over those 4 years. Basically on par with the market.

I’m completely in cash now but want to get back in and “set it and forget it.”

Current shopping list looks like this:
Buy AAPL
Buy GOOG
Buy CEF (Canadian gold trust)

This passes the Warren Buffett test where hypothetically the market closes tomorrow for 10 years. I’d feel just fine owning these three. Keep it simple.

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Categories: economy, investing

Particularly, smart people who are involved in high tech, working at or investing in startups, live in the Bay Area/NYC/Boston, are academics, run VC funds, are former founders, or early Google or Facebook employees, or work at Twitter or Foursquare.  At least that is what it is for me.  The people, questions, or topics you follow (by clicking the “Follow” button), the answers you up or downvote, and the threads you read and comment on determine what it is for you.  I’ve invited friends to join Quora and been surprised to find that for them Quora is all about, China, Latin America, greentech, or the Los Angeles Lakers.

Check out my Quora profile to see what it has been for me recently.

I’m an information junkie and always want to understand the “why”.  This is why I ended up with an economics degree, it promised explanations to questions like why airplane tickets are priced the way they are.  Quora is fun because you often get great answers from people with real domain experience.  With the best answers upvoted and answers from more prominent contributors appearing higher than answers from nobody’s you spend very little time reading non value-added comments.

If you enjoy learning things you really don’t NEED to know, Quora is the place for you.

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Categories: innovation